US-China digital summit. Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will meet face-to-face (nearly) on Monday for the primary time since Biden turned US president final January. The two have so much to debate: commerce wars, the 2022 Beijing Olympics — which Biden will not attend, however most likely will not boycott — and how you can ship on the joint US-China pledge on local weather made at COP26. But the elephant within the Zoom room is Taiwan, an ultra-sensitive challenge for China. Xi is seething on the Biden administration’s latest public support for the self-governing island, which the Chinese regard as a part of their very own territory. The Americans insist they’re merely doing what they’ve at all times completed since 1979 — pledging to assist Taiwan defend itself. Can Biden and Xi navigate these points in a peaceful, cool method? It might assist that the 2 leaders have identified one another since over a decade in the past, after they had been each VPs. With US-China relations getting chillier by the day, the stakes are excessive.
The streets of Cuba. For months, Cuban activists and dissidents have been planning a contemporary, island-wide, anti-government protest. Well, right now is the day, and the stakes are excessive. The Cuban regime, which has refused to challenge permits for any marches, says it is not going to tolerate any unrest, and has accused the US of being behind the demonstrations. Back in July, you may keep in mind, Cuba witnessed the biggest anti-government protests in decades, as well-liked anger over shortages, poverty and political repression boiled over into the streets. Since then some 1,200 folks have been arrested, with roughly half of them languishing in jail whereas awaiting trial on prices of sedition or sabotage that carry sentences of up to 25 years. We’re preserving a watch not solely on what occurs in Cuba, but additionally on how the Biden administration responds. The US president shall be below immense strain from the highly effective Cuban-American constituency in Florida, in addition to Republicans extra broadly, to impose harder sanctions on the island. But there’s an argument that the pursuits of the Cuban folks is likely to be higher served by doing just the opposite.
Duterte vs Duterte. The daughter of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will run subsequent yr for vp… in opposition to her dad. Although the nation elects presidents and VPs individually, Sara Duterte shall be on a de-facto ticket with Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the previous dictator. Meanwhile, her father, with sturdy aspiring dictator vibes himself, will run as Veep to his photo-bombing former private aide. So if Marcos and the senior Duterte each win, a dictator junior might find yourself with a dictator wannabe as his VP. The term-limited senior Duterte, who faces prosecution over his bloody drug warfare until the following president protects him, was initially going to run alongside his daughter, however then dropped out as a result of most Filipinos had been against it. Expect extra drama through the marketing campaign from the Dutertes and different massive names within the Philippines, the place politics is deeply private and events function mere automobiles for people with excessive title recognition. Buckle up for an epic battle for the highest two jobs in May 2022.
Qaddafi redux in Libya? From the progeny of 1 dictator to a different. Ten years after the loss of life of former Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi, his son Saif — wearing Berber robes eerily just like his father’s basic outfit — registered on Sunday to run for president within the December 24 election. With his comeback, Saif Qaddafi hopes that these nostalgic for the steadiness of the earlier regime, in addition to Libyans uninterested in the last decade of chaos and civil war that adopted his dad’s ouster, will give him their vote. But if the elections occur in any respect, which is kind of unsure as a result of ongoing bickering between factions on the foundations and schedule, Qaddafi’s son faces lengthy odds. For one factor, it is unlikely he’ll marketing campaign in public as a result of he fears for his security and has an impressive ICC arrest warrant for crimes in opposition to humanity (a Libyan court docket additionally sentenced him to loss of life for warfare crimes in 2015, though that ruling was later overturned). For one other, he’ll be up in opposition to robust rivals backed by completely different teams of overseas powers like General Khalifa Haftar, parliamentary speaker Aguila Saleh, and PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibah.
US media belief wars. Remember the Steele Dossier? Yes, the oppo analysis on Donald Trump compiled by a former British spy that alleged Russia had kompromat leverage over the then-US presidential candidate. After Trump received the 2016 election, a number of media retailers overtly hostile to Trump lined the unverified report — Buzzfeed even revealed it in full — to recommend that Russia helped get Trump elected. Trump and the GOP-friendly media blasted it as a part of a liberal “witch hunt” to undermine his election victory. Well, up to now few days the file itself has been skewered after Igor Danchenko, the supply of the report’s most juicy declare — that Trump bought Russian prostitutes to defile a mattress Barack Obama slept on in a Moscow lodge — was indicted for lying to the FBI about it. The prices in opposition to Danchenko subsequently led the Washington Post to correct two outdated articles that cited the file, the premise for FBI surveillance of the Trump marketing campaign now being probed by US legal professional John Durham. Expect the scandal to dominate the US political dialog for weeks, and drive a good greater media trust wedge between Democrats and Republicans.
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